What to expect in the Geelong property market in 2024
If you have listened to our Smart Selling Steps Podcast or read any of our market prediction articles previously you will know we love to chat about market predictions.
There are economist that work nationally who also analyze the real estate market. Both the national economist and Kardinia Property do not have a crystal ball. We are unable to predict in all certainty precisely what the market will do. Predicting the future is not an exact science.
The economists are brilliant however at using a plethora of data and analytics to come up with informed predictions about what may occur on the property market front in 2024. As local agents here in Geelong we can apply this information and insight into what is happening on a local level.
Terry Ryder of HotSpotting is one of our go to economists. He explores the property market on a national, state and local level.
Here are some of his key predictions for 2024
- Property prices are tipped to rise between now and the end of 2024. How much will vary greatly between state to state, area to area.
- Due to the interest rates climbing a record 425 since May 2022 expectations are that growth in 2024 will be slower than that in 2023.
- Price gains in established properties are more likely then those in new housing construction
- Vacancy rates are still low and weekly rent is growing at a fast pace and there is nothing to suggest that this will alter significantly in 2024.
Hotspotting also provides us this month with key trends which they suggest will drive the Australian property market in 2024. Their trends are informed by Nicola Powell, who is the Domain chief of research and economics.
- She says a cash (interest) rate cut and population growth will add to demand, affordability will become more important.
- Powell says a rate cut will see more people enter the market as their borrowing capacity improves, that coupled with continuing population growth will push prices higher in 2024.
- While she believes net overseas migration has peaked Powell says it will continue to influence the property market for some time yet.
- After two years of solid rental increases, Powell also believes rental growth will hit a peak in 2024 and slow.
Interesting Nicola suggests that the analysis from Domain found that population growth will have a longer term-cumulative effect on house prices and will still influence property prices into the coming years not just the next 12 months.
Nicola also suggests that buyers will consider affordability and consider neighbouring suburbs which may have previously not been considered. This way they have access to all of the amenities of more expensive suburbs but purchasing a property won’t come with as higher of a price tag.
What are the predictions on the various suburbs in Geelong?
One of the benefits to exploring the economists’ articles is that they will not only provide predictions based on current data and past cycles, but they will also really drill down into specific suburbs. In Geelong at the moment, we are seeing micro markets. Micro markets being differences (they can be quite big at times too) in the sales data from suburb to suburb.
An example would be in Belmont the difference between the advertised sale price and the actual sale price is negative 6.2%. So, what that means is that if you were to put your property on the market for $1,000,000 on average you would sell it for 63 thousand dollars less or $958,000.
In comparison if we were to look at the same differential in East Geelong now the difference between advertised price and actual sale price would be negative 9.0%, which on an advertised price of $1,000,000 would be a $90,000 vendor discount or a sale price of $910,000.
As you can see this is a $48,000 difference between suburbs.
What this shows us is that even between suburbs here in Geelong the markets can be so different. If you were selling in Newcomb versus, Belmont versus, Highton what is happening in each suburb is different.
If I have decided to sell my Geelong property in 2024, what questions should I ask when interviewing agents?
When choosing a real estate agent as your representative, the questions asked will dictate the information you uncover and hence the agent you hire. All agents should have a strategy to sell your property, however they will often only share certain points while avoiding others.
Some agents may focus on the dubious benefits of an auction campaign whilst failing to disclose an auctions inherent financial risk. Others may talk about a good marketing game et spend no time discussing what is an agent’s key value to you, negotiation of the best price. Here are the 8 Questions that Smart home sellers ask. The answers to these questions will provide all the information needed to decide if an agent’s strategy and philosophy is right for you.
- What sets you apart from other real estate agents?
- How would you take my property to market?
- What price do you think my house is worth?
- How much do I owe you if the property doesn’t sell?
- How do your buyer inspections impact your negotiation strategy?
- Can you explain the framework of your negotiation strategy?
- How does your fee compare to your value?
- Can you guarantee you’ll live up to your promises?
If you are considering making a move or putting your investment property on the market feel free to reach out to the Kardinia Property team.
Real Estate as it should be.