The beginning of 2023 is shaping up to be completely different to how the 2022 year kicked off. The first quarter of 2022 saw the property market regain some balance. It was no longer a hot “pandemic boom” market. Although the media didn’t begin reporting the shift until March or so, the data showed the shift began as we were shining our shoes and heading back to the office after the New Year break. The media were calling it the “crashing” market, interest rates were on the increase and workplaces were refining their work-from-home policies. Terry Ryder, independent real estate analyst, says Regional Victoria’s house price according to CoreLogic data grew by +7.3% to the end of the June 2022 Quarter. Peter Farago from the Geelong Advertiser reported on December 19, 2022, that the market in Geelong is still higher than pre-pandemic levels by as much as 33%.
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It’s no wonder home sellers are confused about what is happening here in the Geelong market as some of the biggest national data resources for property statistics continue to be so radically varied in their reports. We have Domain reporting an average 3-bedroom property in the Geelong suburb of Highton is currently $829,000, CoreLogic $845,000 and Real Estate Investor for the same suburb has $950,000.
When considering the marketing and the media hype, we as consumers need to be very aware of the Bad News media monster. Some of the big-ticket property data resources are feeding the media monster hyperbolic doom and gloom, but why? Because bad news sells.
When you have many of the giants in the media, property data and advertising companies owned by the same person sitting in a penthouse office overlooking Sydney Harbor, the bottom line is profits. Calm and measured real estate headlines and reports are not going to sell newspapers. The media will always report in the opposite extreme whether that’s ultra-hype or doom and gloom – there is no happy in-between when it comes to the news.
Taking this into consideration, when looking forward to the 2023 Geelong Property market, we need to be careful that we take anything we hear in the media with a grain of salt. August 2022 saw the big 4 make the following predictions about 2023:
- ANZ: “Epic national property crash” with house prices Australia-wide to drop 8% this year (2022) and predicting to drop 9% 2023
- Westpac: “Banks Bleak prediction that prices will fall 18% in Melbourne and Sydney”
- CBA: “House prices expected to drop rapidly sooner than forecast with a prediction of a national fall of 15% by mid-2023”
- NAB: “NAB sees 20% decline in house price” with a prediction in November 2022 that national house prices will fall 20% in next 12 months
*Terry Ryder, Hotspotting.
The banks’ prediction track record appears to be somewhat questionable. They did after all predict a major bust when COVID hit, but this was far from the case.
Here is what we DO know about the Geelong market
We know that Regional Victoria, including Geelong, is potentially sheltered from the large dips of the major capital cities.
We know that Geelong and surrounding locations are still strong choices for many moving for both a tree and sea change.
We know that many businesses are now offering flexible working conditions.
We do know exodus to an affordable lifestyle is still a dominant trend.
We know that the Spirit of Tasmania now docks in Geelong.
We know that access to the Bellarine is just about to become easier with the completion of the Barwon Heads road and ring road links.
We know that there is development and jobs in Geelong.
In a broader industry sense:
- Many markets are less competitive than before with a drop in buyer numbers.
- Average days on market has increased over the last 12 month period.
- Borders have reopened with migrants and students returning
- Government plans to increase migrant intake
- Shortage of homes and building levels reducing
- Vacancies are ultra-low and rents are rising
- Governments are still offering and exploring more First Home Owner Grants
The is a global focus on Australia with many major events coming our way over the coming years. Geelong will benefit from the Commonwealth Games in 2026. Rugby World Cup and T20 Cricket will also go ahead. We have already seen local employment advertisements and procurement happening for the Commonwealth Games. The Games will not only drive employment, but infrastructure. Accommodation, sporting facilities, transport and hospitality venues need to be built. We know that where there are jobs and infrastructure then there is real estate transacting. All of the people in the lead-up and during the games need to be accommodated.
In a time that may seem uncertain, don’t be fooled. In the past, real estate has thrived in times of disruption. If you are considering selling your property in 2023 in the Geelong area then the right time to do this is when it is right for your family. Interest rates will change, cost of living may go up or down. After 18 months of assuring the public that interest rates wouldn’t increase until 2024 the RBA delivered their first increase since 2010 in May 2022. Predictions are just that – predictions. There are always going to be big media headings, negative or positive, that will try and sway you to sell or stay. In reality, with careful consideration including you and your inner circle, you will know when the right time is for you to make a move.
If you do decide to put your property up for sale, we advise the following to kick off 2023
Act early. Late January/early Feb in the past has seen more new properties come onto the market. This means more competition for you.
Lead the pack, get photos done and be ready to launch before the “back to school rush”.
Price fairly. Gone are the days when you can price sixty or seventy thousand dollars above a property’s value and expect buyers to come to the party. You risk damaging the footprint of the property and ultimately the final sale price. Price fairly and use a sales method that is proven to extract the HIGHEST price.
Use an agency implementing the SMARTRE SALE PROCESS. This is a proven method of sale being implemented Australia-wide with outstanding results. Reduce the risk for you and increase your walk-away dollar figure.
Our number one tip is to sell when the time is right for you.
If you do need any real estate advice or want to get a head start on booking photos to launch your Geelong property early in 2023 our team will be available during the festive period on 5292 8084.